Search results for "Southern oscillation"
showing 10 items of 27 documents
Spatio-temporal patterns of thermal anomalies and drought over tropical forests driven by recent extreme climatic anomalies
2018
The recent 2015–2016 El Niño (EN) event was considered as strong as the EN in 1997–1998. Given such magnitude, it was expected to result in extreme warming and moisture anomalies in tropical areas. Here we characterize the spatial patterns of temperature anomalies and drought over tropical forests, including tropical South America (Amazonia), Africa and Asia/Indonesia during the 2015–2016 EN event. These spatial patterns of warming and drought are compared with those observed in previous strong EN events (1982–1983 and 1997–1998) and other moderate to strong EN events (e.g. 2004–2005 and 2009–2010). The link between the spatial patterns of drought and sea surface temperature anomalies in th…
El Niño variability off Peru during the last 20,000 years
2005
Here we present a high-resolution marine sediment record from the El Nino region off the coast of Peru spanning the last 20,000 years. Sea surface temperature, photosynthetic pigments, and a lithic proxy for El Nino flood events on the continent are used as paleo–El Nino–Southern Oscillation proxy data. The onset of stronger El Nino activity in Peru started around 17,000 calibrated years before the present, which is later than modeling experiments show but contemporaneous with the Heinrich event 1. Maximum El Nino activity occurred during the early and late Holocene, especially during the second and third millennium B.P. The recurrence period of very strong El Nino events is 60–80 years. El…
2018
The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing
2018
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation exerts a large influence on global climate regimes and on the global carbon cycle. Although El Niño is known to be associated with a reduction of the global total land carbon sink, results based on prognostic models or measurements disagree over the relative contribution of photosynthesis to the reduced sink. Here, we provide an independent remote sensing-based analysis on the impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using six global satellite-based photosynthesis products and a global solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) dataset. An ensemble of satellite-based photosynthesis products showed a negative anomaly of −0.7 ± 1.2 PgC in 2015, but a sli…
On the Angola low interannual variability and its role in modulating ENSO effects in southern Africa
2019
Abstract The Angola low is a summertime low pressure system that affects the convergence of low-level moisture fluxes into southern Africa. Interannual variations of the Angola low reduce the seasonal prediction skills for this region that arise from coupled atmosphere–ocean variability. Despite its importance, the interannual dynamics of the Angola low, and its relationship with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other coupled modes of variability, are still poorly understood, mostly because of the scarcity of atmospheric data and short-term duration of atmospheric reanalyses in the region. To bypass this issue, we use a long-term (3500 year) run from a 50-km-resolution global coupled…
Recent climate variability around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) seen through weather regimes
2021
AbstractDaily weather regimes are defined around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies derived from the ERA5 ensemble reanalysis over the period 1979-2018. Ten regimes are retained as significant. Their occurrences are highly consistent across reanalysis ensemble members. Regimes show weak seasonality and non-significant long-term trends in their occurrences. Their sequences are usually short (1-3 days), with extreme persistence values above 10 days. Seasonal regime frequency is mostly driven by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode over Antarctica, mid-latitude dynamics over the Southern Ocean like the Pacific South American mode, and …
Zonal circulations over the Indian and Pacific Oceans and the level of lakes Victoria and Tanganyika
2004
Level records of two East African Great Lakes, Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika, which are considered as hydroclimatic proxies, are analysed. Comparisons between the two lake signals show synchronisms, which can only be accounted for by large-scale mechanisms. Lake-level variations associated with the short rains season (October–January) appear to have a prominent effect on the annual lake levels. The relations between lake-level variations and atmospheric circulation indexes are then investigated. Over the period 1946–2000, four indexes are selected to characterize the October–December zonal circulation over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Over the Indian Ocean two surface zonal wind index…
20th century droughts in southern Africa: spatial and temporal variability, teleconnections with oceanic and atmospheric conditions
2001
Southern African rainfall does not show any trend to desiccation during the 20th century. However, the subcontinent experienced particularly severe droughts in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s and the magnitude of the interannual summer rainfall variability shows significant changes. Modifications of the intensity and spatial extension of droughts is associated with changes in ocean–atmosphere teleconnection patterns. This paper focuses mostly on the well-documented 1950–1988 period and on late summer season (January–March). A principal component analysis on southern African rainfall highlights modifications of the rainfall variability magnitude. The 1970–1988 period had more var…
Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series
2016
Trends in daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical North Africa, west of the eastern African highlands, from 1961 to 2014. The analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. Due to the large number of missing entries (~25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. Averaged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean TX and TN equal respectively +0.021 °C/yr and +0.028 °C/yr. The frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequency of daily TX and TN above the 90th percentile (p90) (“warm days” and …
Predicting dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana using climate indicators
2016
Background Dengue fever epidemic dynamics are driven by complex interactions between hosts, vectors and viruses. Associations between climate and dengue have been studied around the world, but the results have shown that the impact of the climate can vary widely from one study site to another. In French Guiana, climate-based models are not available to assist in developing an early warning system. This study aims to evaluate the potential of using oceanic and atmospheric conditions to help predict dengue fever outbreaks in French Guiana. Methodology/Principal Findings Lagged correlations and composite analyses were performed to identify the climatic conditions that characterized a typical e…